歡迎您訪問《智慧農業(中英文)》官方網站! English

Smart Agriculture ?? 2021, Vol. 3 ?? Issue (2): 68-76.doi: 10.12133/j.smartag.2021.3.2.202104-SA005

? 專題--作物模型與可視化 ? 上一篇    下一篇

基于DSSAT CERES-Wheat 模型的未來40年冬小麥最適播期分析

胡亞南1(), 梁駒2, 梁社芳3, 李世娟1, 諸葉平1, 鄂越1   

  1. 1.中國農業科學院農業信息研究所/農業農村部信息服務技術重點實驗室,北京 100081
    2.英國??巳卮髮W 工程、數學與物理科學學院,??巳?,EX4 4QF 英國
    3.中國農業科學院農業資源與農業區劃研究所/農業農村部農業遙感重點實驗室,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-28 修回日期:2021-06-22 出版日期:2021-06-30 發布日期:2021-08-25
  • 基金資助:
    國家重點研發計劃(2017YFD0300200);中央級公益性科研院所基本科研業務費專項(Y2021XK09);中國農業科學院科技創新工程項目(CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII)
  • 通訊作者: 胡亞南 E-mail:huyanan@caas.cn

Optimum Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in Next 40 Years Based on DSSAT-CERES-Wheat Model

HU Yanan1(), LIANG Ju2, LIANG Shefang3, LI Shijuan1, ZHU Yeping1, E Yue1   

  1. 1.Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China
    2.College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
    3.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2021-04-28 Revised:2021-06-22 Online:2021-06-30 Published:2021-08-25
  • corresponding?author: Yanan HU E-mail:huyanan@caas.cn

摘要:

在適播期內播種是促進小麥高產穩產的關鍵管理技術。為應對未來氣候變化帶來的不利影響,提高小麥高產優質主產區的冬小麥產量,本研究選取黃淮海和江淮地區作為研究區,并在研究區內選擇3個代表站點,利用DSSAT CERES-Wheat模型在基準時段和未來40年分別開展了4種典型濃度路徑的溫室氣體排放氣候情景(RCPs)、51個播期處理的模型模擬試驗,以明確未來冬小麥生育期內氣候要素和最適播期變化特征,定量分析采用最適播期管理措施對冬小麥的增產效應。分析試驗結果表明:未來冬小麥生育期內氣候特征呈現暖干化的趨勢;冬小麥生育期天數隨溫度升高而縮短,縮短天數在研究區地理空間上自北向南遞增;最適播期隨溫度升高而推遲,在各時段、各情景下均隨緯度減小而推遲;相對于基準時段,3個站點2030s時段的最適播期推遲最大天數分別自北向南遞增5 d、8 d和13 d,2050s時段最適播期較2030s時段有不同程度的推遲,且各站點以2050s 時段RCP8.5情景下的推遲天數最多;采取最適播期播種的管理措施,在3個站點均有不同程度的增產效應,黃淮海北片的增產效應最小,黃淮海南片和江淮地區增產幅度相對較高,集中在2%~4%之間。因此,未來黃淮海和江淮地區可采取推遲播期、選擇適播期的管理措施來應對氣候變暖情況,提高冬小麥產量。

關鍵詞: 冬小麥, 最適播期, 氣候變化, RCPs, 作物模型, 黃淮海, 江淮

Abstract:

Climate change requires crop adaptation. Plantint at the suitable date is a key management technology to promote crop yield and address the impact of climate change. Wheat is one of the most important staple crops in China. Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai regions are high-quality and high-quantity planting areas for wheat. To deal with the adverse effects of climate change and promote the winter wheat yield in Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai regions, the optimum sowing date was identified by creating a wheat simulation with DSSAT CERES-Wheat model. The simulation experiment was designed with 51 management inputs of sowing date and 4 climate scenarios (RCPs) under baseline period (1985-2004) and 40 years in future for three representative stations in the study region. The optimum sowing data of winter wheat was corresponding to the simulation set with highest yield in each site. The characters of changes in climate factors during the growth period and the optimum sowing date among the different period were detected, and the yield increase planted at the optimum sowing date was quantified. The results showed that, in the future, the climate during winter wheat growth period showed a trend of warming and drying would shorten the growth period. The optimum sowing date would be postponed with the rise of temperature, and the decrease of latitude in all periods and under various climate scenarios. Relative to the baseline period, the maximum delay days of the optimal sowing date increased from north to south during 2030s, which were 5 days, 8 days and 13 days at the three representative stations, respectively. The optimum sowing times in 2050s were delayed in different degrees compared with that in 2030s. The largest postponed days at each station was at the RCP8.5 scenario in 2050s. Adopting the management of optimum planting date could mitigate climatic negative effects and was in varying degrees of yield increasing effect at three sites. The smallest increase occurred in Huang-Huai-Hai north region, while Huang-Huai-Hai south region and Jiang-Huai region had the relatively higher yield increasement about 2%-4%. Therefore, the present study demonstrated an effective management of optimum sowing date to promote winter wheat yield under climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai regions.

Key words: winter wheat, optimum sowing date, climate change, RCPs, crop model, Huang-Huai-Hai, Jiang-Huai

中圖分類號: 

撸撸色在线看观看免费 <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <蜘蛛词>| <文本链> <文本链> <文本链> <文本链> <文本链> <文本链>