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Smart Agriculture ?? 2021, Vol. 3 ?? Issue (2): 126-137.doi: 10.12133/j.smartag.2021.3.2.202106-SA004

? 信息處理與決策 ? 上一篇    

東北三省地區生長季旱澇對春玉米產量的影響

王蔚丹1,2(), 孫麗1,2(), 裴志遠1,2, 馬尚杰1,2, 陳媛媛1,2, 孫娟英1,2, 董沫1,2   

  1. 1.農業農村部耕地利用遙感重點實驗室,北京 100121
    2.農業農村部規劃設計研究院,北京 100121
  • 收稿日期:2021-06-01 修回日期:2021-06-28 出版日期:2021-06-30 發布日期:2021-08-23
  • 基金資助:
    國家重點研發計劃(2016YFB0501505)
  • 作者簡介:王蔚丹(1985-),女,博士,研究方向為農業干旱監測及自然災害風險分析。Email:wangwd52@mail.bnu.edu.cn。
  • 通訊作者: 孫麗 E-mail:wangwd52@mail.bnu.edu.cn;sunli0618@163.com

Effect of Growing Season Drought and Flood on Yield of Spring Maize in Three Northeast Provinces of China

WANG Weidan1,2(), SUN Li1,2(), PEI Zhiyuan1,2, MA Shangjie1,2, CHEN Yuanyuan1,2, SUN Juanying1,2, DONG Mo1,2   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Cultivated Land Use, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100121, China
    2.Academy of Agricultural Planning & Engineering, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100121, China
  • Received:2021-06-01 Revised:2021-06-28 Online:2021-06-30 Published:2021-08-23
  • corresponding?author: Li SUN E-mail:wangwd52@mail.bnu.edu.cn;sunli0618@163.com

摘要:

評估生長季旱澇對作物產量的影響有助于農民采取措施增產保收。本研究基于1988—2017年氣象站點數據和災情、產量等統計數據,以中國東北三省為研究區,通過對比多時間尺度指標——標準化降水指數(SPI)和標準化降水蒸散指數(SPEI)與旱澇受災率的關系,選擇優勢指數表征東北春玉米生長季干濕狀況,基于HP濾波構建相對氣象產量,利用距離相關分析方法選取合理時間尺度和關鍵月份的指數,分析這些指數與春玉米相對氣象產量的關系以及不同生育階段水分條件與產量之間的關系。結果表明:(1)SPI、SPEI均能表征東北地區農作物受旱和受澇狀況,整體上SPEI在表征東北地區旱澇時更具優越性,尤其在遼寧省,因旱受災率與SPI和SPEI相關系數差距明顯,因澇受災率與SPEI相關系數最大值為0.54,與SPI相關性不顯著。(2)遼寧省SPEI3-8與相對氣象產量的距離相關系數最大,吉林省和黑龍江省SPEI6-8與相對氣象產量的距離相關系數最大;各省對應的SPEI與相對氣象產量呈向下的拋物線趨勢,其中遼寧省春玉米產量受干旱和雨澇的共同影響,吉林、黑龍江兩省主要受干旱災害的影響。(3)遼寧省春玉米在拔節—抽穗期主要受干旱影響,生長季后期受洪澇災害影響較前期加重;當SPEI為1.0左右時,吉林省春玉米在出苗—拔節、拔節—抽穗期可達到最高產,抽穗—乳熟期受干旱影響嚴重;黑龍江關鍵生育期主要受旱災影響,在出苗—拔節、拔節—抽穗期正常偏濕年份可達到最高產量,但中度及以上雨澇仍會導致玉米減產,抽穗—乳熟期在輕度濕潤時可高產,重度濕潤時會因澇減產。本研究對東北三省地區預估旱澇災害對春玉米產量影響和及時采取災害防御措施具有一定的參考價值。

關鍵詞: 干旱, 洪澇, 標準化降水指數SPI, 標準化降水蒸散指數SPEI, 產量, 春玉米, 東北三省

Abstract:

With the change of global climate, extreme weather events such as drought and flood disasters occur frequently. These have a great impact on crop yields. As an important main grain producing area, the impact of drought and flood on the agricultural production of the three provinces in three northeast provinces of China cannot be ignored. Based on historic meteorological data such as daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, 2 m average wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity, etc., the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) during 1988-2017 in three northeast provinces of China were calculated with different time scales. Through comparing with characterization of drought and flood disasters in history, SPEI was chosen to judge drought and flood in the growth season of spring maize. With the purpose of evaluating the effects of drought and flood on spring maize yield, based on the distance correlation analysis method, the index of reasonable time scale and key month were selected to analyze the relationship between the index and the relative meteorological yield of spring maize. The relationship between water conditions at different growth stages and the yield was also analyzed. The results showed that: (1) both SPI and SPEI could represent the drought and flood conditions in three northeast provinces of China. Compared with SPI, SPEI had higher correlation with the drought and flood disaster rate, and SPEI was more advantageous in characterizing the drought and flood conditions in the study area; (2) relative meteorological yield was significantly correlated with drought disaster rate in all three provinces (P<0.01), and reached 0.05 significant level with flood disaster rate in Liaoning province, but not significant in Jilin and Heilongjiang province; (3) the distance correlation coefficient between SPEI3-8 and relative meteorological in Liaoning province was the largest, and that between SPEI6-8 and relative meteorological yield in Jilin and Heilongjiang province was the largest. SPEI and relative meteorological yield showed a downward parabolic trend. Overall, the impact of waterlogging on the yield in Liaoning was slightly less than that of drought, mild drought or moderate wet could lead to a decrease in yield. The impact of drought disaster in Jilin and Heilongjiang was much greater than that of flood, but severe humidity could lead to a decrease in yield. Compared with other provinces, the maize yield in Liaoning province fluctuated more sharply with the change of dry and wet; (4) in Liaoning province, maize may reach the highest yield when the jointing-heading period was close to severe wet, which was mainly affected by drought. In the late growing season, the impact of flood disasters was more severe than that of the early growing season, and both drought and flood disasters had effects on the yield. In Jilin province, the highest yield of spring maize was reached when SPEI was about 1.0 during the period of emergence-jointing and jointing-heading, and the effect of drought was more serious during the period heading-milking. The key growth periods in Heilongjiang province were mainly affected by drought, and the maximum yield was reached in the normal-wet years of emergence-jointing and jointing-heading stages, but medium-scale size or more severe floods still led to the decrease of maize yield. The high yield could be achieved in the slightly wet years in period of heading-milking stage, while the decrease could be caused by flood when it was severely wet. This research can provide a reference for estimating the impact of drought and flood disasters on spring maize and taking disaster prevention measures in three northeast provinces of China.

Key words: drought, flood, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, yield, spring maize, three northeast provinces of China

中圖分類號: 

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